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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.